The AI-secure Job Insurance
Imagine a future where AI replaces most white-collar jobs. How and when would you prepare? Signup for an insurance, invest in tangible assets, or own a wallet to be spent for learning future skills?
While it may not be immediately apparent, there's a plausible possibility that machines could someday displace many humans from their jobs. White-collar knowledge workers are currently at the forefront of such potential displacement, while the prospect of true mechanical robots still seems further off.
With the average time it takes for technology to reach widespread adoption (20 years for the Internet, 15 years for Mobile), we can expect AI automation won't happen suddenly. But in considering its potential for the mid to long term, there's a high likelihood that your current knowledge-worker role may face significant automation. Historical patterns suggest that as old jobs disappear, new ones emerge. While this cycle may be okay for the economy at large, it may not be a magic solution for you as an individual. After all, what guarantees that the new jobs will match your preferences, abilities, or even your age group?
Therefore, one needs to set up some kind of insurance well before problems are realized or revealed. Yet it can be hard to motivate people to insure against risks that seem too unlikely or too far in the future. However, let's seize this opportunity to explore strategies to mitigate such risks.
Perhaps now is the perfect time to put these plans into motion. Here are three angles to consider:
A) Company-upskilling managed like a social security
This approach isn't about a groundbreaking "0 to 1" change. Instead, it's about extrapolating best practices for lifelong learning currently implemented by forward-thinking companies to a wider base. The goal is to make it a standard for 80% of companies, normalizing the provision of budgets and resources for continuous learning to all employees. This process could mirror the way contributions are made to social security:
Employees receive an annual budget to choose from a curated catalog of courses focusing on future skills, with career coaching included.
Employees are allocated an annual budget of working hours to engage in upskilling activities (see above: taking a course, hours with a coach).
B) Granular yearly investment in diversified financial assets
Drawing inspiration from Switzerland's third pillar, one could invest in diversified financial assets likely to retain substantial value even in the event of AI-induced job displacement. This could include global ETFs, bonds, real estate, gold, and the like.
Although it doesn't function as a traditional insurance policy that only pays out under specific conditions, this strategy involves regular small-scale investments – about 1-2% of annual income. This cumulative contribution can provide a substantial cushion in case of a job transition, even if it isn't enough to entirely cover living expenses.
C) A funded upskilling wallet
Presently, only Singapore offers a lifelong learning account, SkillsFuture, to all its citizens.
Imagine owning a wallet valued in actual currency (not fictional education-coins) which:
Gets regularly replenished through small yearly investments from you and additional contributions from entities like the government, social institutions, foundations, and companies. This communal investment in your future skills is complemented by your personal financial commitment.
Remains yours to keep, even in the event of job or company transitions.
Can be used to finance a wide variety of curated courses and other upskilling activities.
Accumulates unused funds, offering a safety net for significant career transitions.
And there you have it. It's worth considering that these three strategies could be combined, hence the use of a Venn diagram to illustrate the ideas. Most likely, a concerted approach involving multiple stakeholders will be needed. If any of these options were available at your workplace or as an insurance product, which one would you choose first? Keep in mind, these plans are good, even if AI doesn't end up automating all jobs in the long run.
Aspects taken from: Robots-Took-Most-Jobs Insurance by Robin Hanson (he drafted a different model, have a look too)
This was super interesting to read. Thanks Felix.
Irrespective of whether they are white- or blue-collar workers, I am fond of the concept of (future skills) insurance. It aligns perfectly with the sentiment expressed by Mahatma Gandhi's quote: "The measure of a civilization is how it treats its most vulnerable members."